Market Comments/News

  09/08/10 3:27:40 PM



From: Wil Manweiler, Dunkerton Co-op [wilman@dunkertoncoop.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 08, 2010 3:16 PM
Subject: Market comments/news

Corn

U.S. corn futures slipped, ending near session lows amid profit-taking after sharp recent gains and positioning ahead of Friday's USDA report. The market traded both sides of unchanged during the session but ended on a weak note. Sharply lower wheat pressured other grains, analysts said. Some analysts also said the market is short-term overbought and due for a correction. While traders expect the USDA to cut its projected crop size Friday, a big reduction might be needed to continue fueling the recent bull market, traders say. Funds sold an estimated 7,000 contracts Wednesday. September corn fell 4 cents, or 0.9%, to $4.47 1/2 a bushel. December corn settled down 3 3/4 cents, or 0.8%, at $4.62 1/2.

Wheat

U.S. wheat futures closed sharply lower after a late sell-off fueled by profit-taking and a larger-than-expected estimate for Canada's ending stocks. The markets gave back gains for the second consecutive day after CBOT Dec wheat climbed 6.7% last week. Statistics Canada provided a bearish surprise by estimating stocks as of July 31 at 7.8 million metric tons, up 19% from a year earlier. That makes Canada look like a stronger competitor to the U.S. for export business, a broker said. Demand for U.S. wheat has increased since a severe drought slashed output in Russia. But Egypt, the world's top wheat importer, snubbed the U.S. in a tender Wednesday and bought French wheat. CBOT December wheat closed down 24 1/4 cents at $7.11 a bushel, KCBT December wheat fell 18 1/2 cents to $7.34 1/2, and MGE December wheat was down 20 1/2 cents to $7.33 1/4.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean futures closed slightly lower in a turnaround from Tuesday's rally to nine-month highs. Prices see-sawed between positive and negative territory during the session as the market consolidated in front of USDA crop reports Friday, traders say. Market participants are waiting for updated estimates on U.S. soy production and yield. Indications so far point to a big U.S. crop, analysts said. Prices ended down even though USDA on Wednesday said U.S. exporters sold 115,000 tons of soybeans to China, the world's top soybean importer. "There's plenty of room for USDA to increase exports from the August forecast, and there's plenty of room for them to take down production," said Dave Marshall, an independent marketing advisor in Illinois. Commodity funds sold an estimated 2,000 contracts at CBOT, a light amount. CBOT November soybeans closed down 3 1/4 cents at $10.48 3/4 a bushel.

Soybean Meal/Oil

U.S. soy product futures finished weaker with soybeans. Soyoil held up relatively well after Statistics Canada pegged canola stocks as of July 31 above trade estimates. Soyoil and canola oil are both vegetable oils. The agency put Canada's stocks as of July 31 at 2.1 million tons, up almost 28% from a year earlier. "The idea that there is a little bit more canola out there does mute some of the bullishness" in soyoil, a broker says. Soyoil climbed Tuesday after USDA announced heavy soyoil export sales. Commodity funds were sellers across the grain and soy complex Wednesday, including an estimated 1,000 soyoil and 2,000 soymeal contracts. CBOT December soymeal closed down $1.90 at $304.80 per short ton, and CBOT December soyoil ended down 0.11 cent at 41.68 cents per pound.

Oats

CBOT oats ended slightly higher. September oats settled up 1 cent to $2.95 1/2 per bushel while December oats climbed 1 cent to $3.04.

Pork Complex

Pit-traded CME hogs closed higher on short covering following futures' slide Tuesday. Fund buying cropped up after October and December hogs cleared major chart resistance hurdles. And, October and December futures played host to the first of five days of the current Goldman roll period. The "roll" consists of funds moving their spot October hog long positions mainly into December. The process is done in association with such commodity index as the Standard & Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. Meanwhile, easing tension about European banks generated deep-deferred hog contract buying interest. Domestic and foreign consumers may be more inclined to buy expensive meat protein if they are less concerned about the state of the global economy. Spot October hogs ended at 76.30 cents a pound, up 0.70 cent, or 0.925%. The contract earlier pushed through 75.65-cents 100-day and 75.92-cents 10-day day moving average resi! stance barriers. October hogs also overcame 76.05-cents and 76.12-cents 40-day moving average resistance obstacles.

Cattle

After pit-traded CME live cattle's fund-induced tumble Tuesday, futures settled higher Wednesday on $98 per hundredweight cash cattle returns that bested last week's mostly $97 outcome. October and December contracts took out their respective 96.93-cents and 98.84-cents 20-day moving average resistance targets with tipped off fund buyers. And, nearby December benefited from funds that rolled into the contract out of spot October on the first of five days for the current Goldman roll period. The "roll" is tied to such commodity index funds as the Standard & Poor's Goldman Sachs Commodity Index. Spot October live cattle ended up 0.90 cent a pound, or 0.9%, at 97.25 cents. Nearby December finished up 1.00 cent, or 1.0%, at 99.70 cents. Feeder cattle futures posted a flat-to-firm finish on spillover live cattle support and short covering. Most-actively traded October finished unchanged at 112.42 cents. November close! d up 0.02 cent, or 0.02%, at 113.42 cents.

 

 

 

Wil Manweiler

Dunkerton Co-op

PO Box 286

Dunkerton IA 50626

319-822-4291

wilman@dunkertoncoop.com

 

Data and comments provided for information purposes only and not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Information is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed accurate or complete. Commodity trading involves risks and those risks should be fully understood before trading.

 

 
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