The April Jobs Report Could Be Good for T-Bond Futures. Here Are the Levels to Watch Before You Buy.

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June U.S. Treasury bond futures (ZBM25) present a buying opportunity on more price strength. 

See on the daily bar chart for June U.S. T-Bond futures that prices are trending higher and this week hit a three-week high. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bullish posture as the red MACD line is above the blue trigger line and both lines are trending up. Bond bulls have the near-term technical advantage.

Fundamentally, this week’s downbeat U.S. economic data suggests the Federal Reserve will lower U.S. interest rates sooner rather than later, which would be bullish for T-Bond futures. It’s also my bias that Friday morning’s monthly U.S. jobs report for April will show some weakness in the jobs sector and will be friendly for T-Bond futures prices.

A move in June T-Bond prices above chart resistance at this week’s high of 117 21/32 would give the bulls more power and it would also become a buying opportunity. The upside price objective would be 125 even, or above. Technical support, for which to place a protective sell stop just below, is located at 115 even. 

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IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any trades and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 

Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. 


On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.